The Effect of Exclusive Breastfeeding on Child Survival Using Modified Kaplan Meier Model (MKMM)

Main Article Content

Moses Longji Dashal
Kazeem Eyitayo Lasisi
Kaneng Eileen Longji

Abstract

Background: In Survival analysis, Kaplan-Meier estimator serves as a tool for measuring the frequency or the number of patients surviving medical treatment. Kaplan Meier estimates of survival data have become a better way of analyzing data in cohort study. Kaplan- Meier (K-M) is a non-parametric estimates of survival function that is commonly used to describe survivorship of a study population and to compare two study populations.

Aims: This research study is aimed at reducing the morbidity and mortality rate of children less than 6 months.

Methodology: 58,609 children less than six months were Exclusive Breastfed from the database. The analysis is done using both K-M and the modified K-M model to examine the effects of Exclusive Breastfeeding. The AIC and BIC was also used as the information criteria.

Results: Our results revealed that the K-M model 0.998566822 as the estimated survival probability of children under the ages of six months. Also showing, Exclusively Breastfed children stand the chance of 99% survival.

The modified K-M model also revealed 6.98276443909739 as the estimated survival probability, due to initiation of milk substitute and food supplement into the breastfeeding pattern. Showing about 70% chances of survival. Implying about 30% of the existence in one disease or the other or the risk of dying before the age of 5 years.

From the information criteria, the AIC (2.3119452169420) and BIC (7.8478797677756) in the Modified K-M are both lower compared to Existing Kaplan Meier (4.0012457354876) and (9.5371847322969) respectively. Modified K-M stand as the best model in knowing the types/amount of food to be added to breastfeeding pattern.

Conclusion: So far, the Modified Kaplan Meier Model has been verified and the findings agree that the life expectation will be improved by 99% if children are fed exclusively with breast milk while the life span is been reduced that can lead to death by 30% if the children have a mix feeding which agrees with why Exclusive Breastfeeding should be done.

Keywords:
Survival analysis, Kaplan Meier, exclusive breastfeeding, Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion.

Article Details

How to Cite
Dashal, M. L., Lasisi, K. E., & Longji, K. E. (2019). The Effect of Exclusive Breastfeeding on Child Survival Using Modified Kaplan Meier Model (MKMM). Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, 5(4), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2019/v5i430146
Section
Original Research Article

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